<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="yes"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"><channel><title>Human Nature on Pavan Yara</title><link>https://pavanyara.com/tags/human-nature/</link><description>Recent content in Human Nature on Pavan Yara</description><generator>Hugo -- gohugo.io</generator><language>en-US</language><managingEditor>pavan.yara@gmail.com (Pavan Yara)</managingEditor><webMaster>pavan.yara@gmail.com (Pavan Yara)</webMaster><copyright>Pavan Yara</copyright><lastBuildDate>Tue, 27 Nov 2018 23:16:02 +0530</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://pavanyara.com/tags/human-nature/index.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><item><title>Your Intuition is Wrong</title><link>https://pavanyara.com/blog/kahneman-intuition/</link><pubDate>Tue, 27 Nov 2018 23:16:02 +0530</pubDate><author>pavan.yara@gmail.com (Pavan Yara)</author><guid>https://pavanyara.com/blog/kahneman-intuition/</guid><description>&lt;p&gt;“In general, confidence is a very poor cue to accuracy. Because intuitions come to your mind with considerable confidence and there is no guarantee they’re right.”&lt;/p&gt;&#10;&lt;p&gt;There are certain times when intuition can be correct. For instance, Kahneman explained, chess players and married couples generally have accurate intuition.&lt;/p&gt;&#10;&lt;p&gt;“Intuitions of master chess players when they look at the board [and make a move], they’re accurate,” he said. “Everybody who’s been married could guess their wife’s or their husband’s mood by one word on the telephone. That’s an intuition and it’s generally very good, and very accurate.”&lt;/p&gt;</description><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“In general, confidence is a very poor cue to accuracy. Because intuitions come to your mind with considerable confidence and there is no guarantee they’re right.”</p>
<p>There are certain times when intuition can be correct. For instance, Kahneman explained, chess players and married couples generally have accurate intuition.</p>
<p>“Intuitions of master chess players when they look at the board [and make a move], they’re accurate,” he said. “Everybody who’s been married could guess their wife’s or their husband’s mood by one word on the telephone. That’s an intuition and it’s generally very good, and very accurate.”</p>
<p>According to Kahneman, who’s studied when one can trust intuition and when one cannot, there are three conditions that need to be met in order to trust one’s intuition.</p>
<p><strong>The first is that there has to be some regularity in the world that someone can pick up and learn.</strong></p>
<p>“So, chess players certainly have it. Married people certainly have it,” Kahnemen explained.</p>
<p>However, he added, people who pick stocks in the stock market do not have it.</p>
<p>“Because, the stock market is not sufficiently regular to support developing that kind of expert intuition,” he explained.</p>
<p><strong>The second condition for accurate intuition is “a lot of practice,” according to Kahneman.</strong></p>
<p>And the <strong>third condition is immediate feedback. Kahneman said that “you have to know almost immediately whether you got it right or got it wrong.”</strong></p>
<p>When those three kinds of conditions are satisfied, people develop expert intuition.</p>
<p>“But unless those three conditions are satisfied, the mere fact that you have an idea and nothing else comes to mind and you feel a great deal of confidence — absolutely does not guarantee accuracy,” he added.</p>
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